Initially, I thought the midterm elections would be the biggest obstacle for President Obama during his relection bid. But after the new Census numbers were released last week, it seems the Obama camp (and Democrats for the next several years) has far more to worry about.
With faltering economies throughout the Midwest; coupled with the explosion of immigrant communities in the Southern and Western regions, the 2010 Census has provided states with Republican leanings additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and consequently, more votes in the Electoral College. Predominately red state Texas, for example, wound up being a big winner securing an additional four seats. This is pretty unnerving news for Democrats because power and electoral momentum is gradually shifting more and more in the direction of red states. Meanwhile places like New York and Michigan - generally considered liberal enclaves – will find themselves having less electoral force by the time 2012 comes rolling around.
Those of you who read my blog will know that the cross section of race and politics is of particular interest to me. So it should come as no surprise that I examine this shift from a racial perspective. This process is particularly important for African Americans because the House of Representatives has always served as a important advocate for issues directly impacting the black community (I hate using the term “black community” as if we are some kind of monolith, but the term is generally well understood). The loss of Congressional representation in the House (in addition to the dismal election outcomes for Democrats in November) could potential act as a precursor to a complete dismissal of a “black agenda”; especially since the Senate – the most powerful of the two houses – is without a single black face; be it Democrat, Republican, or otherwise. Black representation in politics is almost non-existent at this point.
Just in case you’re not too hip to how this all works, the Constitution requires us to perform a Census count every ten years. As a result of the count, seats are redistributed in a way that ensures that individual congressional districts in each state have as close of a number of representatives as possible. At the end, this also affects the way in which votes in the Electoral College are allocated. States with higher populatations in relationship to others earn more Electoral College votes; the apparatus by which Presidents are elected. Perhaps one of the most significant, but under-discussed phenomenons is how congressional reapportionment is controlled by state legislatures, which themselves typically act in a partisan fashion. The results? In many cases, the party in control broadens and cements their power through gerrymandering; essentially the practice of redrawing the boundaries for districts in a manner suiting the interests of that party. So now, you can expect issues that were of great concern by many to get held up (or outright ignored) by…let’s say…representatives from rural communities with little interest in progressive agendas from more urban areas. And this – I should point out – does not simply represent a temporal change until the next election cycle. No. This change will be in effective – most likely – until the next Census count ten years from now.
Now, I concede to the possibility that rising Latino and Black populations will thwart some of the rising power of the GOP. When you consider the overwhelming level of support folks gave Obama (somewhere around 96% of black voters and 67% of latino voters), things don’t look completely dismal for Democrats. But whether or not this comes in to play will be largely predicated on whether Republicans are willing to be a little more generous in drawing district lines. But being a student of history, I’m not holding my breath. Right now, they are in the driver’s seat…and it’s not likely they’ll relinquish that control anytime soon. And why should they?
Obama, 2012 is looking more and more like a fantasy.
- ACL
I wouldn’t worry about Texas. If anythhing, Dems should be happy to hear the news about Texas. With Latino populations growing there, Democrats are looking pretty good right now. Republicans will NEVER get their vote?
Kevin, you’re not serious are you? Texas has a Republican governor AND a supermajority in their House. Besides that, the last time that state went blue was 1976. Texas is damn near crimson red by now.
Why does the Left consider all non white people in America their political property? Contrary to popular opinions of the Left many non whites vote conservative, I guess they haven’t been told they are Democrats.
Uh, excuse me? When’s the last time you saw a Republican candidate making Harlem a stop on their campaign trail? Remember how three of the top four GOP candidates didn’t bother showing up to a debate at Morgan State University in 2007? Remember how most of them snubbed the debate hosted by Univision (the popular Latino TV station)? Remember how only one Republican candidate showed up at the convention of the National Association of Latino Elected & Appointed Officials
The “assumption” you just spoke of about minorities and Democrats goes both way. Tell them to start reaching out more to minorities and then you can complain.
I don’t get the hysteria in this post. It seems to me that the people moving south bound are the ones losing the jobs and the ones most likely to support Democrats. Democrats moving to warmer weather…what’s the problem?
Martin,
I agree to an extent. But the question is: how many Democrat-leaning people moving south can ACTUALLY change the balance of control in that region? I think major ideological shifts are less likely to happen in areas where Republicans far outnumber Democrats. Maybe we’ll see a changing of the guard in a state that is more closely split (Florida, for instance), but not likely in a place like Texas.
“Perhaps one of the most significant, but under-discussed phenomenons is how congressional reapportionment is controlled by state legislatures, which themselves typically act in a partisan fashion. The results? In many cases, the party in control broadens and cements their power through gerrymandering; essentially the practice of redrawing the boundaries for districts in a manner suiting the interests of that party.”
Great point! Something I’ve been telling people for a long time. When the newly elected GOP governors in many of these states get ahold of the redistricting though, they will be able to gerrymander the districts to make sure the Dems see little gain.
The ripple effect of November’s elections!
Your oversimplifying things. Redistricting is only a small side effect here. The biggest issue surfacing from the census is the dramatic relocation of voting blocs. These aren’t just knucklehead teens and young adults who don’t vote that are moving. It’s working adults, senior citizens. People who make their voices heard.
H. Anderson,
I’m not sure why you would think redistricting doesn’t matter. The census data explicitly allows states to realign congressional and legislative districts in based on population shifts since the last census. That’s one of the Census’ main purposes. It essentially assures equal representation for constituents in voting areas, motivated by the “one-person, one-vote” principle of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. I recommend you check out this guide to Census 2010 redistricting. It’s pretty informative.
Hey Dre,
I’m amazed at what an issue gerry mandering becomes when the Republicans do it. Let’s get rid of the whole thing and grid out the states starting with the next census, (You can’t change the rules now just because you lost.) Also, when did a lame duck congress passing all kinds of legislation become a good thing?? If this were Republicans, the press would be screaming foul. Here in Michigan, Granholm has passed more legislation in the past year than any other administration…ever! Plus she has pardoned and commuted more sentences than any other Governor. (It should be noticed however, that she also turned down more. That’s like me telling my wife, “Sure, I cheated on you with all kinds of women, but look at all the ones that I turned down!” Oddly, we don’t here a word of protest by the Left Stream Media on these subjects.
wishing you a rewarding 2011 New Year Andre in every area of your life.
I know that it still happens, but Isn’t gerrymandering illegal?
Is there no way for it to be challenged by disgruntled parties (whether they by dem, rep or ind.?) Maybe that is what needs to happen when this redistricting gets going.